Climate Change Could Further Threaten Iraq's Social Stability: World Bank

Baghdad: Climate change, in particular increasing water scarcity, could further threaten Iraq’s fragile social contract under an oil-led growth model that has been a source of economic volatility, according to the new World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR).
 
The report seeks to reconcile Iraq’s development goals and climate ambition, offering policy options for economic diversification and transformation. Iraq faces the challenge of moving away from total oil dependance towards a more diversified, private sector-led economy that creates jobs and builds human capital while also building resilience to climate change.
 
Iraq is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change shocks both in financial and physical terms, including temperature rise and water scarcity. The country is quickly running out of water, and in a business-as-usual scenario, the widening gap between water supply and demand is expected to increase from around 5 billion to 11 billion cubic meters by 2035. Water scarcity and suboptimal water quality can significantly reduce crop yields and affect agri-food systems, threatening food security and adversely impacting GDP.

Iraq’s carbon emissions have more than doubled over the last decade alone. The country has one of the highest levels of carbon intensity (emissions per GDP) compared to its regional and income peers. Almost three quarters of the country’s emissions are attributed to the electricity, oil and gas operations and transport sectors. Decarbonization pathways for the electricity sector can bring significant additional growth and productivity gains.
 
Despite being one of the largest oil producers in the world and almost doubling its oil production in the past decade, Iraq’s development indices resemble that of low-income countries.  Climate change is fueling inequalities and the risk of unrest in a society already eroded by years of conflict and violence.
 
"Without key structural reforms, Iraq’s pursuit of a resilient, inclusive and diversified growth path will not materialize," said Jean-Christophe Carret, World Bank Mashreq Country Director, in a press release on Monday.
 
"Delays in implementing these reforms will make it harder for Iraq to cushion the adverse physical and fiscal effects of climate change and to afford its growing investment needs, including in the water and power sectors," Carret added.
 
To address these combined challenges, the Iraq CCDR prioritizes actions in three focus areas: adaptation, with a focus on the water-agriculture-poverty nexus; mitigation, with a focus on decarbonizing Iraq’s energy value chain; and managing the macro-fiscal implications of the transition to a low-carbon economy.
 
The CCDR estimates that Iraq would require around US$ 233 billion in investments by 2040 to respond to its most pressing development gaps while embarking on a green and inclusive growth pathway. 
 
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