Jakarta: Retail sales predicted to improve in February 2021 although still in a contractionary phase, according to the latest retail sales survey conducted by Bank Indonesia (BI).
On a monthly basis, retailers expected The Real Sales Index (RSI) in February 2021 to improve to -0.7% (mtm) from -4.3% (mtm) given the seasonal spike in demand during the Chinese New Year festive period in the middle of February 2021.
Information and communication equipment as well as spare parts and accessories recorded positive growth to shore up retail sales performance in February 2021.
Annually, respondents predicted relatively stable RSI performance at -16.5% (yoy) compared with -16.4% (yoy) one month earlier.
Retail sales of several commodity groups were expected to improve yet remain in a contractionary phase, including Clothing, Cultural and Recreational Goods, Spare Parts and Accessories as well as Information Communication Equipment.
Previously, monthly retail sales in January 2021 decreased in line with seasonal trends after the Christmas and New Year festive period amidst the ongoing enforcement of public activity restrictions (PPKM) as well as inclement weather.
Broad-based declines were observed across all commodity groups, particularly Automotive Fuel, Other Household Equipment and Clothing.
In terms of prices, retailers predicted a build-up of inflationary pressures in the next three months (April 2021) before dissipating in the next six months (July 2021), as confirmed by an increase in the 3-month Price Expectations Index (PEI) to 156.9 from 149.7, driven by the onset of the holy fasting month and preparations for Eid-ul-Fitr.
On the other hand, the 6-month PEI decreased to 153.5 from 164.8 in line with adequate supply and uninterrupted distribution.
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