Jakarta: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has trimmed its forecasts for economic growth in developing Asia this year and next year as growth in China and India is weighed down by both external and domestic factors.
In a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook 2019 Update released in September, ADB now expects gross domestic product (GDP) in the region to expand 5.2 percent in both 2019 and 2020, down from the September forecast of 5.4 percent growth this year and 5.5% next year.
“While growth rates are still solid in developing Asia, persistent trade tensions have taken a toll on the region and are still the biggest risk to the longer-term economic outlook,” ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada said in a press statement issued on Wednesday, December 11, 2019.
In East Asia, growth in China is now expected at 6.1 percent this year and 5.8 percent next year due to trade tensions and a slowdown in global activity coupled with weaker domestic demand, with family wallets being hit by pork prices that have doubled relative to a year ago.
Growth could accelerate, however, should the United States and China come to an agreement on trade, the report says. In September, ADB forecast GDP growth of 6.2% in 2019 and 6.0% in 2020.
Hong Kong, already in technical recession, will see severe downward pressures persist possibly into 2020. The economy is now expected to contract 1.2 percent this year and grow 0.3 percent next year.
In Southeast Asia, many countries are seeing continued export declines and weaker investment, and growth forecasts have been downgraded for Singapore and Thailand.
For Indonesia, ADB still expects the country's GDP to grow 5.1 percent this year and 5.2 percent in 2020.